Human space flight is usually clubbed with all other space activities and hence allotted to government space agencies, who tackle it with a rigid procedural approach. They usually possess large budgets and are less concerned about issues like cost overruns or a delayed program. Some tasks are outsourced, while most are performed in-house, by employees, who are not always specialists in the job.
For example, a rocket engineer may not be best suited for designing an exercise machine or space toilet. This article, based on the personal experience of the author, brings to you the story as told by economics and expenditure on human space flight. Data from the past two decades indicates that only 25-35% of the expenditure in human space flight is on rockets, launch vehicles and propulsion systems.
The rest is on keeping the human in orbit alive. This consists of human use products, systems and human use complex systems (vide infra). This is important, because it tells us about the existence of a huge, overlooked, commercial opportunity that can be leveraged by entrepreneurs.
Today, we stand at an inflection point. Commercialization and democratization of the space economy have brought private entrepreneurs to the forefront. While SpaceX and Starliner have become household names, there are other, lesser known companies, contributing to space flight. Indian Space Association data indicates over 700 space related companies registered in India alone. This makes sense.
The World Economic Forum and McKinsey and Co have independently projected the space economy to grow from $0.6 trillion in 2023, to $1.8 trillion in a decade. This is about the same size as the world fashion industry, except that the number of players in it is a mere fraction, and stand to increase many times over.
ISRO has projected that the Indian space economy is likely to hit $44 billion (Rs 4 lakh crore) in a decade. Going by statistics, while one lakh crore will be used for launch systems, close to three lakh crores will be expended on non-rocket segments. This is a huge opportunity for the Indian industry.
There are two more important economic factors to understand. The first is that government space agencies have traditionally been very conservative in outsourcing especially to foreign companies.
The participation of commercial space companies has already blurred national boundaries, with economics being the chief driver in selection of partners. This will change further as time goes by and the hangover from a previous era becomes less pronounced. The second is that Indian engineering firms have been known for frugal innovation and providing low-cost solutions to complex problems. Together these two make a heady cocktail.
It is important to understand the products that are required, for that will allow various industries to estimate if they are in a position to participate in the human space flight program. At the most basic level are human use products, which are products for the personal use of astronauts.
These include things like clothing, medical supplies, toiletries, food, consumables, etc. It is my estimate that the Gaganyaan mission alone will require around 50–60 such products, while the upcoming Bhartiya Antariksh Station (BAS) may need up to 3,000. It may be pertinent to bring out here that space products are more specialized than their terrestrial counterparts, even though somewhat similar. Hence, they will require specific design and engineering.
The next level is that of systems, which are a combination of many products.
A seemingly routine thing like a computer printer for the ISS took nearly 20 years to replace, due to its specific requirements. Its eventual cost escalated from $130 for the base HP Officejet 5470, to close to $200,000 in the ISS. Many such systems, like an oven, refrigerator, freezer, air circulators, waste compactors are needed in space.
Again it is my estimate that Gaganyaan is likely to need about 10 such systems, while BAS could require more than 100. The highest level of engineering innovation is needed for complex systems, which are systems of systems, like a toilet or environmental control and life support system (ECLSS).
These incorporate many independent systems. For example, the toilet includes an air circulator, waste compactor, water management, recycling etc. Nasa has declared the cost of its space toilet as $23 million.
The bottom line is that a majority of technology that goes into human space flight has got nothing to do with rockets, launch vehicles and propulsion systems. Instead, it has to do with everyday items, made specially for space. And it is priced at something like 6,000 crore to 3,00,000 crore per year, for India alone.
I will leave it to the reader to decide whether this manufacturing is best suited for rocket-scientists, or for niche manufacturers with specialization in the field, such as garments, refrigeration, water purification and so on…
Looking ahead… Government space agencies are best suited for rockets and propulsion systems. It is expected that specialized tasks like astronaut selection and training will remain under government purview.
However, firms with engineering capability, manufacturing reliability, and a focus on innovation need to come forth and benefit from human space flight. Also, since the entire process is so research intensive, one successful space-qualified product can ensure global demand forever.
Disclaimer
Views expressed above are the author’s own.
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