Introduction
Efforts to restore peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan have reached a serious deadlock, with both sides trading accusations over cross-border terrorism, infiltration, and diplomatic interference.
Despite multiple rounds of backchannel talks and mediation attempts by regional partners, officials from both Islamabad and Kabul have failed to achieve any breakthrough. The stalemate not only threatens fragile regional stability but also risks reigniting hostilities along one of the most volatile borders in the world.
Analysts warn that without meaningful dialogue and confidence-building measures, Pakistan–Afghanistan relations could deteriorate to levels not seen since the fall of Kabul in 2021.
A History of Strained Relations
Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have long been marked by mistrust and mutual suspicion. Since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, Pakistan hoped for a more cooperative neighbor that could help manage border security and prevent terrorist spillover.
Instead, the situation has become increasingly tense. Over the past two years, Pakistan has repeatedly accused the Afghan Taliban of harboring militants from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — a banned group responsible for numerous deadly attacks inside Pakistan.
The Taliban government in Kabul, however, denies supporting the TTP, arguing that Islamabad’s internal security issues are its own responsibility.
“Afghanistan will not allow its territory to be used against any country,” said Zabiullah Mujahid, the Taliban’s chief spokesman, in a recent statement. “Pakistan must resolve its domestic problems through dialogue, not blame.”
Yet for Pakistan, the issue goes far beyond rhetoric. Officials say that TTP sanctuaries inside Afghanistan continue to operate with impunity, enabling militants to plan and execute attacks against Pakistani military and civilian targets in border provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
The Latest Round of Talks: Another Dead End
According to diplomatic sources, the latest round of peace negotiations — held in Doha earlier this month — ended inconclusively after both sides failed to agree on key security guarantees.
Pakistan reportedly demanded that the Afghan Taliban take “visible action” against the TTP, including disarming militants and dismantling training camps operating near the Durand Line. Kabul, in turn, sought assurances that Pakistan would stop cross-border shelling and facilitate trade access for Afghan goods through Pakistani ports.
“The discussions were cordial but stagnant,” said a senior South Asian diplomat familiar with the talks. “Both sides presented demands, but neither showed flexibility. The gap between expectations remains wide.”
Observers note that the Taliban leadership faces its own internal divisions, with hardliners opposing any cooperation that could be seen as yielding to Pakistan’s pressure.
Border Clashes Intensify
The diplomatic deadlock has coincided with a noticeable increase in border skirmishes.
Over the past three months, Pakistani security forces and Afghan border guards have exchanged fire several times along key checkpoints in Chaman, Torkham, and Spin Boldak.
The most recent incident in late September reportedly left several civilians injured and temporarily halted trade movement between the two countries.
“Such incidents reflect the breakdown of communication,” said Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Asad Mahmood, a Pakistani defense analyst. “What we’re seeing is a dangerous spiral where diplomacy is failing, and military posturing is taking its place.”
In response, Islamabad has tightened security along the border, stepped up surveillance, and accelerated fencing operations across the 2,640-kilometer-long Durand Line — a move that Kabul continues to reject.
Economic Strains and Trade Barriers
The impasse in peace negotiations is also impacting the already fragile economic ties between the two nations. Afghanistan, which heavily relies on Pakistani ports like Karachi and Gwadar for imports, has complained of frequent trade disruptions, increased customs duties, and tightened visa policies for Afghan traders.
“Political disputes should not affect commerce,” said Abdul Ghani Baradar, Afghanistan’s Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs. “We want a transparent, stable relationship that benefits both sides.”
However, Pakistani officials maintain that trade facilitation cannot be separated from security concerns. The frequent targeting of Pakistani border checkpoints by militants, allegedly operating from Afghan soil, has made Islamabad reluctant to ease restrictions.
The economic impact is being felt on both sides of the border. Truck convoys remain stranded for days, businesses are losing millions in trade revenue, and ordinary citizens dependent on cross-border commerce are growing increasingly frustrated.
The TTP Factor: The Core Sticking Point
At the heart of the deadlock lies the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) issue — the single largest obstacle to any peace framework.
Formed in 2007, the TTP has waged a relentless insurgency against the Pakistani state, carrying out attacks on security forces, schools, and public institutions.
After a brief ceasefire in 2022, peace talks between Pakistan and the TTP — facilitated by the Afghan Taliban — collapsed, leading to an escalation in violence across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and tribal areas.
Pakistan claims that TTP leaders continue to enjoy safe haven inside Afghanistan, recruiting, regrouping, and plotting cross-border operations.
“Without concrete action against the TTP, there can be no genuine peace,” said Murtaza Solangi, Pakistan’s former Information Minister. “Our patience has limits. If the Afghan government cannot act, we will be forced to defend ourselves.”
For the Taliban, however, taking direct military action against the TTP risks alienating militant factions that helped them seize power in 2021 — a political risk Kabul seems unwilling to take.
Regional Implications: A Broader Security Concern
The breakdown of talks has alarmed regional powers, particularly China, Iran, and Russia, who fear that renewed instability could spill across borders and jeopardize investment projects like the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Beijing, a key stakeholder in South Asia’s stability, has urged both Islamabad and Kabul to engage in “constructive dialogue,” emphasizing that peace is essential for regional economic integration.
“China has significant economic interests in both countries,” said Dr. Feng Liu, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies. “Escalating tension could delay infrastructure investments and limit cross-border connectivity projects.”
Meanwhile, Iran has also expressed concern over increased militant activity near its eastern border, warning that “any destabilization in Afghanistan or Pakistan will inevitably affect the region’s collective security.”
International Mediation Efforts
With direct talks faltering, several diplomatic players — including Qatar, Turkey, and the United Nations — have stepped in quietly to encourage renewed engagement.
Qatar, which hosts the Taliban’s political office, is reportedly mediating informal discussions between mid-level officials from both countries.
However, progress remains limited, as both sides insist that the other must make the first move.
“Pakistan wants Kabul to prove its sincerity through action,” said Dr. Huma Yusuf, a South Asia political analyst. “Meanwhile, the Taliban wants Pakistan to treat it as an equal partner, not a subordinate player. These conflicting expectations are what keep the peace process frozen.”
Public Sentiment and Political Pressures
Public opinion in both countries is also shaping the diplomatic narrative.
In Pakistan, rising casualties from terrorist attacks have increased domestic pressure on the government to adopt a tougher stance against the Taliban regime.
Conversely, in Afghanistan, the Taliban leadership faces growing discontent over Pakistan’s border policies and deportations of Afghan refugees. Thousands of Afghans have been forced to return home in recent months, straining humanitarian conditions and fueling anti-Pakistan sentiment.
These domestic pressures make it politically difficult for either side to compromise.
The Road Ahead
Experts believe that unless both Islamabad and Kabul take practical confidence-building steps, the peace process may remain frozen well into 2026.
Potential measures include establishing a joint border monitoring mechanism, enhancing intelligence sharing, and reopening trade channels to rebuild trust.
However, success will depend on whether both governments can separate political rhetoric from pragmatic cooperation.
“The path to peace is still open, but it requires political courage,” says Lt. Gen. Mahmood. “Both sides must recognize that instability serves no one — not Pakistan, not Afghanistan, and certainly not the region.”
Conclusion
The deadlock in Pakistan–Afghanistan peace negotiations marks a troubling moment for South Asia. The two neighbors share not only a border but also intertwined histories, cultures, and economic futures.
If the current impasse persists, both nations risk sliding into a cycle of mistrust and retaliation that could undo years of regional progress.
For now, the message from both capitals remains clear: dialogue continues, but trust is in short supply.
As one senior diplomat aptly put it:
“Peace in this region has always been fragile — but without courage and compromise, it may remain forever out of reach.”
